NBA Draft Primer: Value can be found at shooting guard

“Value” is a precious term for front offices in the present-day NBA. With the salary cap escalating to unimaginable levels and contracts soon to become unspeakably lucrative for free agents, “value” will be placed at a premium, just as it always has been. Players offering general managers and executives the highest output-to-cost ratios are naturally sought after. These players, more often than not, take the form of rookie contracts, placing considerable emphasis on the NBA Draft process.

Concerning the shooting guard position in the draft two weeks from now, National Player of the Year Buddy Hield and freshman sensation Jamal Murray are top 10 guarantees. A pair of international prospects, 3-and-D Frenchman Timothe Luwawu and Turkish mystery man Furkan Korkmaz, are projected to find a new home either late lottery or in the middle of the first round. The true value of the 2016 NBA Draft lies after these four are vacated from the board. Teams in need of a value pick should look no further than the flurry of 2-guards slated late in the first round and throughout the second. This year’s deep crop of shooting guards is underscored by a pristine mixture of prospects capable of playing NBA minutes tomorrow and prospects with sizeable upside. We analyze 10 of these 2-guards that will be available in value spots here.

Pay no attention to the order in which the prospects are listed. I initially tried ranking them but found it far too difficult, although I do have a favorite (McCaw) and least favorite (Richardson). Instead, I separated the players into two categories, either identified as “Immediate Impact” players or “Upside” players. Along with each prospect’s analyses are all the important measurables and the particular player’s latest DraftExpress mock draft projection. Also included are player comps. For those who have wider range of what they could develop into, a ceiling comp and floor comp are given. Let’s run.

Immediate Impact Guys

DeAndre Bembry, St. Joseph’s

DX Mock: 28

Age: 21

Height: 6’5¾”

Weight: 207

Wingspan: 6’9¼”

Max Vert: 38”

Bembry, as a mere freshman, was the undeniable glue of a St. Joe’s squad that was a defensive rebound shy of rewriting history and knocking off the eventual National Champion UConn Huskies in the first round of the 2014 NCAA Tournament. Bembry spurned the likes of Virginia Tech and Seton Hall for St. Joe’s, and it didn’t take a trained eye tell he would develop into an Atlantic-10 star. There are only a handful of players in this draft class that can greater impact an NBA game at this moment in time than the St. Patrick High School product. Likely remaining on the board until the 20s, Bembry will be one of the steals of the draft and the rich will get richer. Bembry is defined as a two-way player with a well-rounded game and crazy scoring versatility. Just because he is identified as an immediate impact prospect, however, does not entail he is lacking in upside. Bembry is a consistent 3-point jumper away from being a potential All-Star caliber wing. Established stars such as Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler were viewed as defensive stalwarts before realizing their full potential offensively after reaching the Association. Bembry could fall under the same category. #FearTheFro.

BembryHair

Ceiling: Jimmy Butler

Floor: Iman Shumpert

 

Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia

DX Mock: 41

Age: 23

Height: 6’5½”

Weight: 223

Wingspan: 6’10½”

Max Vert: 35½”

Brogdon is a near-lock to be able to instantly make a difference for an NBA team, just as a handful of these 2-guards. The 4-year star at UVA’s calling card, just as it was in college, will be the defensive end of the floor. Captaining the nation’s best defense over the past three seasons, Brogdon was surely schooled well on defensive concepts by Tony Bennett. Brogdon notched a tremendous 93.9 career defensive rating in Charlottesville thanks to an unsullied amalgam of strength and length, which will assuredly translate to the NBA. For any team selecting in the early-to-mid second round, Brogdon should be near the top of their boards, as he will, at minimum, immediately be a defensive stopper off the bench, being able to guard anywhere from 1-3 and potentially the 4 in smaller lineups. Any offense he generates would be a luxury, but that is a luxury Brogdon is capable of providing. He improved his shooting percentage each of his four seasons, a testament to his work ethic, and with a bit tighter handle would be capable of running the point in a pinch. A grown man with a decorated college career as the winningest player in Virginia history, Brogdon should enjoy an extended NBA career.

Player Comp: Keith Bogans

 

Michael Gbinije, Syracuse

DX Mock: 53

Age: 24

Height: 6’6¾”

Weight: 205

Wingspan: 6’7½”

Max Vert: 37½”

Gbinije is owner of one of the more intriguing backstories in the 2016 draft class. Gbinije was a rare transfer out of Mike Krzyzewski’s program at Duke after one year. A former 5-star recruit, Gbinije landed in upstate New York at Syracuse and steadily progressed each year, culminating in a Final Four run in his senior season. Gbinije is only found lower on draft boards due to his age, as he turned 24 last Sunday. He projects anywhere from point guard to small forward in the NBA. As a result of his size causing potential matchup issues for defenses, the point, just as in college, may be where his greatest professional future lies. The best thing Gbinije has going for him is improved shooting mechanics, almost to the point where they are near-flawless, a tribute to his work ethic. Whether it’s off the dribble, or catch-and-shoot either in spot-up situations or on the move, Gbinije always finds a way to square his feet and has a pretty stroke.

Gbinije

Gbinije can drill threes with deep range and combines that with size and a decently quick release to be able to hoist shots up over most defenders from both distance and mid-range. Shooting is likely to be his best asset offensively at the next level, but Gbinije is nowhere near a one-trick pony, which gives him such high second round value. He can see over the top of defenders in pick-and-roll situations, contributing to his 4.5 assists per 40 minutes, and was also the stabilizer of the top of Syracuse’s 2-3 zone, amassing 2 steals per 40 minutes for his career without elite length. Gbinije was scary consistent over his final two seasons in school, shooting 46% from the field and 39% from deep both years. He utilized to 2015 summer to hone his game, winning the Afrobasket championship with the Nigerian national team. He parlayed that into a stellar senior year and hopefully a lengthy NBA career.

Player Comp: Josh Richardson

 

Caris LeVert, Michigan

DX Mock: 46

Age: 21

Height: 6’7”

Weight: 191

Wingspan: 6’10”

Max Vert: N/A

We would not be having this conversation if it weren’t for LeVert’s unfortunate and ongoing health issues. He’d likely have wrapped up his rookie season in the NBA by now, but a torn ACL damaged his draft stock and forced him to remain at Michigan for his senior season, which was cut well-short by another leg injury. Once viewed as a top 10 prospect and now a second round pick in all likelihood, LeVert is perhaps the epitome of “value” in basketball terms. The old adage is that the most imperative offseason in collegiate athletics is the one between your freshman and sophomore seasons. LeVert seemed to take that to heart, as not only did he evolve his game, but he added 2 inches and 20 pounds of muscle to his frame. All of the tools are there. Late bloomers, such as LeVert, are always more intriguing because logically there is plenty more room to grow. His injury-shortened 2015-16 campaign was his best yet percentage-wise, shooting a blistering 51/45/79. LeVert has more than sufficient point guard skills to be a menace at that position at the next level with scary size and length to accompany excellent vision and scoring versatility. Once the second round hits in the NBA Draft, guaranteed contracts are out the window, eliminating almost every ounce of risk. Logically, nabbing LeVert and praying he is able to overcome the run-ins with the trainer makes too much sense.

Player Comp: Doug Christie

 

Denzel Valentine, Michigan State

DX Mock: 23

Age: 22

Height: 6’5¾”

Weight: 210

Wingspan: 6’10¾”

Max Vert: 32”

Several scouting outlets categorize Valentine as a shooting guard, which is why he is among this group. However, his NBA future likely lies as a lead guard, just as in East Lansing, but his shooting ability will allow him to play some off the ball. What the 2016 AP Player of the Year lacks in explosiveness he makes up for in basketball IQ. Valentine constantly plays with his head up and loves to push the ball off both misses and makes, throwing lead passes to not only wings, but also threading the needle to bigs running the middle of the floor. A major component of the NBA, of course, is pick-and-roll, and Valentine is one of the best PnR ballhandler prospects we have seen in recent memory. A threat offensively in so many ways, Valentine navigates the PnR patiently and with ease. Coming off of ball screens, he always keeps his dribble alive and surveys the floor, calculating the best move. Go under the screen and this 44% 3-point shooter will make you pay. Blitz the screen and he will find a way to hit the roll man. Valentine, above all out of the PnR, is unparalleled in whipping cross-court passes to shooters when weak side help collapses on the roll man, all credited to his ability to see the entire floor at all times.

Valentine

For these reasons, Valentine is a guarantee to find a niche in the NBA. 23 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists per 40 minutes in the Big Ten speaks for itself. Valentine plays with a fearlessness that will not allow him to fail. For every Tom Izzo verbal haymaker thrown his way, he calmly buried a three on the ensuing possession. Denzel is one of the most NBA-ready prospects in the 2016 class.

Player Comp: Draymond Green (guard version)

 

Upside Guys

Malik Beasley, Florida State

DX Mock: 32

Age: 19

Height: 6’4½”

Weight: 190

Wingspan: 6’7”

Max Vert: N/A

Dwayne Bacon was the more heralded incoming Seminole prior to the 2015-16 season, but Beasley proved to be more NBA-ready with a quietly outstanding and efficient freshman year, shooting 47/39/81 and averaging 21 points per 40 minutes. The theme of scoring versatility continues, and among the prospects we have analyzed here, Beasley is probably the best pure scorer. The Florida State product is highlighted by sound shooting mechanics and can showcase his athleticism when given space. Beasley may need a bit longer of an incubation period and is possibly best-suited joining a contender late in the first round. In the end, a proficient college scorer with a solid understanding of shot selection has a lot to offer NBA teams.

Ceiling: C.J. McCollum

Floor: Rashad Vaughn

 

Isaia Cordinier, France

 DX Mock: 39

Age: 19

Height: 6’4¾”

Weight: 177

Wingspan: 6’8”

Max Vert: N/A, but….

Cordinier

Cordinier is the same age as this year’s freshman class, and there’s a lot to like about the French high-flyer. First and foremost, his athleticism jumps out at you on tape (no pun intended). Cordinier is a dynamic athlete who is at his best when in transition and is an explosive leaper off both one and two feet. He, however, is more than solely a dunk artist. Although he cooled off a bit after a red hot start in the LNB Pro B League in France, the development of his shooting stroke from last year to this is incredibly encouraging, improving from 25% from 3 in 2014-15 to 40% in 2015-16. Cordinier, like several of the others highlighted here, is a high-character prospect. An energizer bunny with a motor running non-stop on both ends, Cordinier never takes a possession off. Conversely, Cordinier only knows how to play one speed, and that’s 100 mph, which causes him to be turnover-prone and undisciplined at times defensively. Added issues about his level of competition in France’s B-League, per se, have also contributed to him falling into the second round in most mocks. Once Cordinier is able to bottle up that energy and play more under control, he will be primed to play a role in an NBA franchise. A team selecting early in the second round seeking a draft and stash option such as Boston, who owns eight (EIGHT!) picks on the night of June 23rd, would be wise to go with the bouncy 19 year-old project hungering to improve his game.

Player Comp: Rudy Fernandez

 

Patrick McCaw, UNLV

DX Mock: 40

Age: 20

Height: 6’6¾”

Weight: 181

Wingspan: 6’10”

Max Vert: 38”

This, when the dust settles, may end up being the true hidden gem of the 2016 draft class. McCaw was a quiet 2016 NBA Draft early entry on the heels of a quietly excellent sophomore season. Bucks fans witnessed Rashad Vaughn play out the worst PER rookie season in NBA history among those rookies that played 600+ minutes. I promise this UNLV guard will be a much different story because of his overall versatility. McCaw excels when he can get out in transition, specifically as a ballhandler. He frequently makes this happen attributable to an intrinsic ability to create turnovers. McCaw’s defensive instincts are at the top of this class. He relentlessly hunts for steals with his 6’10” wingspan and anticipation that cannot be taught.

McCaw

That anticipation will be one of the initial items in McCaw’s toolshed early in his NBA career. With 2.9 thefts per 40 minutes and countless Mountain West guards falling victim to pick pockets, he undoubtedly makes his presence felt on the defensive end of the floor. Moreover, similar to Bembry, McCaw will factor on the offensive end scoring in a variety of ways and acting as a secondary facilitator. In transition, McCaw makes plays both for himself and his teammates. Shooting 47/37/77 this past season and racking up nearly 5 assists per 40 minutes gives us a glimpse of the holistic nature of his game. Broad shoulders indicate he will be able to add onto his 181-pound frame. He remains a lesser-known commodity due to a relative lack of visibility in school. Don’t be surprised if we see McCaw jolt up boards here in the latter stages of the draft process as he becomes less of a secret. For me personally, it’s not too farfetched to claim the former Runnin’ Rebel is a down-the-road All-Star. A number of teams will eventually be kicking themselves for passing on him.

Player Comp: Corey Brewer with a jumper

 

Dejounte Murray, Washington

DX Mock: 35

Age: 19

Height: 6’5”

Weight: 170

Wingspan: 6’9½”

Max Vert: N/A

Murray was one of the most impressive freshmen in college basketball this past season. While there are certain areas of his game he must improve upon to have staying power in the NBA, this combo guard is oozing with upside. Murray’s game is very reminiscent of Jamal Crawford’s. Playing a streetball-type style, Murray is ultra-wriggly with the ball in his hands, knifing through defenders with Crawford-esque hesitations and behind-the-back dribbles and finishing with creative, high-degree-of-difficulty floaters and runners.

Murray

Murray’s floater game accounts for a good portion of his offense, and he consistently showed through his lone season in Seattle an innate ability to stop on a dime and avoid charges along with a soft touch, providing optimism for ameliorating a 29% 3-point jumpshot. There exist some obvious red flags, however. Turnovers (3.9 per 40 min) and efficiency (99.7 offensive rating) are a glaring issue, and while some of that may be attributed to Washington’s up-tempo, care-free style of play, Murray remains a volume shooter, occasionally extremely loose with his handle, and struggles against physicality at just 170 pounds. He was foolishly advised by his agent to bypass the NBA Draft Combine, causing us not only to have out-of-date measurements, but more importantly for Murray himself, a gaping draft range. He can be seen slotted in mocks as early as mid-lottery and as late as early second round. Nevertheless, no matter where he is selected, his potential makes him worth the flier and a no-brainer if that comes later in the draft.

Ceiling: Jamal Crawford

Floor: Archie Goodwin

 

Malachi Richardson, Syracuse

DX Mock: 33

Age: 20

Height: 6’6¼”

Weight: 200

Wingspan: 7’0”

Max Vert: 38”

With Richardson, we have the annual classic case of striking while the iron is hot. The Syracuse freshman came of age in the NCAA Tournament, especially in an Elite Eight win over Virginia with a 23-point performance and a second half takeover. Naturally his draft stock skyrocketed and he parlayed his tourney run into a one-and-done season. I was never too involved with the Malachi Richardson hype train and view him as strictly a second round prospect, but there’s more to like about him than just his First Team All-Hair selection.

MalachiHair

Richardson’s positives are all tied together by his upside. A 7-foot wingspan indicates 3-and-D potential. He’s still only 20, but our evaluations of him at the next level are relying on a two-week hot streak. A disconcerting 37% field goal percentage is particularly what stands out. I wasn’t predominantly fond of Richardson’s draft decision, but, again, the upside is certainly worth a second round choice.

Ceiling: Alec Burks

Floor: James Anderson

 

Each of the preceding players certainly has his own defining skillset. In digging deeper into the numbers, we do, however, find a trend. Basketball is in full-fledged evolution mode with the propensity of 3-point attempts growing each year. Going hand-in-hand with that evolution, though, is the ball movement, well, movement, for lack of a better word. Isolation is down and assists are up, and having 5 players on the floor who are threats to dribble, pass, and score is becoming a necessity. This year’s shooting guard/combo guard class embodies the trendy style of basketball, as almost all of the prospects we have highlighted here are proven facilitators.

PLAYER

AST/40 MIN

Valentine

9.4

LeVert

6.4

Murray

5.3

Bembry

4.8

McCaw

4.6

Gbinije

4.5

Brogdon

3.6

Cordinier

3.4

Richardson

2.4

Beasley

2.0

Even Beasley, as primarily a scorer, showed in his time at Florida State he was more than willing to make the extra pass and rarely took poor shots. This, exactly, is the value pinpointed as well as it possibly can be. With this year’s group of 2-guards, whether they can contribute instantly or down the road, teams are getting all-around basketball players.

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